Friday, September 28, 2012

Nifty testing 5700 level?

NIFTY at 5700, what's next?


The month of October saw a huge rally in Indian Markets as there were few reforms which took place at the global levels such as ECB bond buying and Quantitative Easing 3 which took most of the global indices to a 52 week high. But the underlying question is, how far are these reforms useful and the answer was quite imminent on the very next week.

The Dow Jones fell around 106+ points and what ever rally that had taken place in all the global indices was due to news but not because of any fundamentals. The same thing happened in Indian Markets too. But Indian markets survived the rally due to domestic reforms that have taken place immediately after the reforms announced by ECB and US FED.

Nifty has reached 5700 level yesterday and it didn't break 5700 level to the downside. The FII money has been pouring in due to the latest reforms such as acceptance of  FDI in single and Multi-brand retail, FDI also in aviation boosted the markets. Airlines which are feeling the debt pressure such as KingFisher Airlines can have a sigh of relief after this announcement. But the biggest question is, who will go ahead in venturing with KFA which has a lot of Debt on its balance sheet?

Since, Diwali is on the cards, we can see uptrend in NIFTY as well as SENSEX. But to maintain this trend, RBI should deregulate measures such as decrease in repo rate which boosts liquidity into the market but the challenge against RBI is INFLATION which is not slowing down.

One can also sense the political turmoil that is taking place at the national level as Mamata Banerjee withdrew support leaving congress on a thread for a while, but the UPA government is very insistent in the reforms such as FDI.

This month we have a hearing from RBI regarding interest rate cuts as well as results from few companies such as Maruti Suzuki. Since there was a lockout at Manesar plant and the production was low, what other factors can keep the profits of Maruti intact should be a wait and watch move.

Above all, this month is supposed to be an action packed one and lets hope NIFTY maintains the current levels or enters into new resistance levels.

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